Florida’s Health Care Workforce at a Crossroads: A Strategic Look at the 2022 to 2037 Nursing Projections

Florida is standing on the brink of a health care workforce transformation, and the latest Florida Health Care Workforce Projections 2022 to 2037 report from the Florida Center for Nursing (FCN) lays out a future that demands both urgency and strategy from healthcare leaders, policymakers, and employers. This analysis is more than a set of statistics. It is a call to align workforce planning with demographic reality.

The Headlines: Where Supply Meets Demand and Sometimes Does Not

The projections forecast supply and demand trends across key segments of the state’s healthcare workforce, including physicians, advanced practice providers, registered nurses (RNs), licensed practical nurses (LPNs), and nursing assistants. While some professions remain close to balance, others are on track for significant shortages.

For nurses, the patterns are especially important:

• LPNs face a pronounced shortage. The supply of LPNs is projected to decline by nearly 0.9 percent annually, while demand grows by about 2.3 percent annually. Adequacy could fall from roughly 85% in 2022 to near 55% by 2037. This trend signals serious challenges for settings that rely on practical nurses for frontline care.

• Registered Nurses show balanced growth, but serious pressure remains. While RN supply is expected to remain close to demand, regional disparities and rapid population growth mean some areas will continue to face difficulty keeping pace.

• Certified Nursing Assistants are at risk. CNA supply is expected to fall behind demand across most regions by as early as 2026, with deeper deficits through 2037. Long term care facilities and community providers will feel this strain most directly.

These patterns stem from forces larger than the workforce itself. Florida’s total population is projected to increase significantly through 2037, and the 75 and older demographic will grow at a faster rate than any other group. This alone increases the need for complex and ongoing healthcare services.

What This Means for Health Systems and Employers

For health systems, long term care organizations, and community providers, the implications are wide ranging:

1. Workforce strategy must become proactive rather than reactive.
The projected gaps in practical nurses and nursing assistants will stress service models that are already stretched. Organizations should invest in deeper recruitment pipelines, retention initiatives, training support, and alternative care team structures to stabilize operations.

2. Geography determines opportunity and risk.
Even when statewide numbers appear balanced, local shortages can still undermine access. Both rural communities and fast growing metro areas will require tailored approaches to recruitment, incentives, and retention.

3. Supply dynamics reflect deeper workforce realities.
Addressing nursing shortages is not only about training more professionals. It is about creating conditions that retain them. Clear career pathways, flexible scheduling, burnout prevention, and leadership development will remain critical for stability.

Policy Implications and Community Impact

Education partners and state agencies also have important roles in helping Florida prepare for what these projections reveal.

Policies that can make a difference include:

• Expanding and strengthening education to practice pathways, especially for LPNs and nursing assistants

• Increasing clinical training capacity to support practice ready graduates

• Creating regionally informed workforce strategies across Florida’s varied communities

The broader community will feel these impacts most directly. Reduced staffing adequacy in LPN and CNA roles affects quality of care, patient safety, wait times, and the reliability of services that families depend on each day.

Looking Ahead

The FCN projections present both a challenge and an opportunity. They offer an early warning system and a roadmap that can help Florida strengthen its health care workforce long before the shortages deepen. Health care leaders now face a pivotal moment that calls for strategic planning, strong education partnerships, and thoughtful policy decisions that support the professionals who keep Florida’s system running.

As demand grows and pressure increases on nursing roles in particular, it becomes even more important for nurses to protect their licenses and understand their rights. Licensing issues, investigations, or administrative actions can interrupt a career at a time when the state needs experienced nurses more than ever. Howell, Buchan & Strong represents nurses across Florida and helps them navigate complex licensing matters so they can stay in practice and continue serving their communities.

If Florida uses the FCN data wisely and supports its workforce through strong preparation and fair regulation, the state can build a health care system that is resilient, responsive, and positioned to meet the needs of the next decade and beyond.